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2019年国际贸易重磅盘点:全球低迷不振,来年机遇挑战并存

经济日报  |  2019年12月31日
联合国贸发会议报告显示,2019年全球贸易呈停滞态势。继2018年9.7%大幅增长,2019年全球商品贸易预计下降2.4%,至19万亿美元;服务贸易预计增长2.7%,至6万亿美元,较2018年7.7%的增幅大幅减速。

  2019NIANSHIJIEJINGJICHIXUXIAXING,MAOYIJINZHANGJUSHIJIAJU,XIAXINGYALIHEXIAOJIYINSUJIAOZHI,QUANQIUMAOYIXIANRUPIRUANTAISHI。ZAIDANBIANZHUYIHEBAOHUZHUYITAITOU、MAOYIMOCASHENGJI、YINGGUOTUOOUBUQUEDINGXINGTUXIAN、FEIGUANSHUICUOSHIJIZENG、DAZONGSHANGPINYILAIDUJIAZHONG、SHUZIJINGJIFAZHANBUJUNHENG、DIYUANZHENGZHIJUSHIJINZHANG、QIHOUWEIJIPOJINHESHIJIEMAOYIZUZHIXIANRUGAIGEFENZHENGDENGFUZADUOBIANDEXINGSHIXIA,GUOJIMAOYIFUZHONGQIANXING,DANLAINIANHUOJIANGYINGLAISHUGUANG。

  贸易增长显著放缓

  SHIMAOZUZHIBAOGAOXIANSHI,YUQUANQIUMAOYIXIANZHUANGHEQUSHIMIQIEXIANGGUANDEZHUDUOZHIBIAOZAI2019NIANJUNCHUXIANXIAJIANG,XIANSHIQUANQIUMAOYIDAFUFANGHUANQIEZENGZHANGFALI,GEDIQUJIBUTONGFAZHANSHUIPINGDEGUOJIAJINCHUKOUJUNYOUSUOXIAJIANG,QUANQIUMAOYIZONGTICHENGPIRUOZHUANGTAI。

红包捕鱼  SHIMAOZUZHIZUIXINHUOWUMAOYIQINGYUBIAODUSHUWEI95.7,YILIANXU4GEJIDUDIYUQUSHISHUIPING(100)。GAIDUSHUQUANBU6GEFENXIANGZHISHUJIGUOJIHANGKONGHUOYUNZHISHU、QICHECHANXIAOZHISHU、NONGYEYUANCAILIAOZHISHU、CHUKOUDINGDANZHISHU、DIANZIYUANJIANZHISHUHEJIZHUANGXIANGGANGKOUTUNTULIANGZHISHU,JUNDIYUQUSHISHUIPING,BUFENZHISHUJIEJINHUOCHAOGUO2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIYILAIZUIDISHUIPING。CIWAI,QUANQIUCHUKOUDINGDANZHISHUYIDIYUQUSHISHUIPING,JIANGZHI2012NIAN10YUEFENYILAIZUIDISHUIPING。ZAIFUWUMAOYIFANGMIAN,QUANQIUFUWUMAOYIDADUOSHUFENXIANGZHISHUJUNCHUXIANXIADIE,XIANSHIFUWUMAOYIMIANLINQIANGJINGZULIBINGZANSHIZENGZHANGDONGLI。ZONGHELAIKAN,HUOWUMAOYIQINGYUBIAODUSHUZHENGTIXIADIEJIQUANQIUMAOYIZENGZHANGFANGHUAN,ZHUYINSHIMAOYIJINZHANGJUSHIJIAJU,DANYEFANYINGLEGEGUOJINGJITEYOUZHOUQIXING、JIEGOUXINGYINSUJIFADAJINGJITIHUOBIZHENGCEZHUANBIAN。

  DAZONGSHANGPINXUQIUJIJIAGEZAI2019NIANCHUKAISHIDAFUXIADIE。ZI2018NIANQIJIN,QUANQIUHAISHANGYUNSHUSHIQUZENGZHANGDONGLI,HAIYUNMAOYILIANGJINZENGZHANG2.7%,YUANDIYU2017NIANDE4.7%,GANGKOUJIZHUANGXIANGYUNSHULIANGZENGZHANG4.7%,TONGBIXIAJIANGLIANGGEBAIFENDIAN。JIANYANZHI,2019NIANQUANQIUJINGMAOGEXIANGZHIBIAOJUNXIANSHIMAOYIZENGZHANGFANGHUAN。

  诸多因素拉低走势

  QUANQIUMAOYIZAOSHOUZHONGCUO,ZHUYAOSHISHOUDAOZHUDUOYINSUKUNRAO。

红包捕鱼  MEIGUOTIAOQIMAOYIZHANTUOLEIQUANQIUMAOYI。MEIGUOZHIDUONIANLAIXINGZHIYOUXIAODEDUOBIANMAOYIZHENGDUANJIEJUEJIZHIYUBUGU,DONGZHEWEIXIEHUOSHIYONGJIAZHENGGUANSHUIHEMAOYICHENGFACUOSHI,RENWEIZHIZAOBINGJIAJUMAOYIJINZHANGJUSHI,DAOZHIQUANQIUMAOYIDAFUFANGHUAN。

  DANBIANZHUYIHEBAOHUZHUYISHITOUXUERUODUOBIANMAOYITIZHI。MEIGUOTUICHUHUOWEIXIETUICHUYIXIEGUOJITIAOYUEHEGUOJIZUZHI,HUOCONGZHONGSHEZHIZHANGAI,DAJIDUOBIANMAOYI;SHUANGBIANHEQUYUMAOYIANPAIZENGDUO,KEGUANSHANGXUERUOLEDUOBIANMAOYITIZHIDEQUANQIUZUOYONG;MEIGUOZUNAOQIDONGSHIMAOZUZHISHANGSUJIGOUCHENGYUANLINXUANCHENGXU,YANZHONGPOHUAIGUOJIMAOYIZHENGDUANJIEJUEGUIZEHEZHIXU。

红包捕鱼  YINGGUOTUOOUJIQUANQIUMAOYI“TIANLUAN”。YINGGUOTUOOUDEBUQUEDINGXINGJIQUANQIUMAOYIQIANJINGMENGSHANGLEYINYING。YOUYUWUFAANQIWANCHENGOUMENGKUANGJIANEIQUANBUXIANYOUMAOYIYOUHUIXIEYIYANQIGONGZUO,YIJISUIHOUDEFEIGUANSHUICUOSHI、BIANJINGKONGZHIJIYUOUMENGSHENGCHANWANGLUOLIANXIZHONGDUAN,WEILAIYIGESHIQIYINGGUOCHUKOUJIOUMENGDUIYINGMAOYIJIANGZAOSHOUZHONGDADAJI,CHUKOUGAODUYILAIYINGGUOSHICHANGDEYIXIEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAYEHUIYINCIZAOYANG。

红包捕鱼  FEIGUANSHUICUOSHISHULIANGJIZENGSUNHAIQUANQIUMAOYIJIANKANGHUANJING。YINGXIANGGUOJIMAOYIDEFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIRIYICHENGWEIGEGUOMAOYIZHENGCEDEWUQI,LUOSHIZHEIXIEFUZAQIEBUTOUMINGCUOSHIXUHAOFEIDALIANGZIYUAN,DAOZHIJINCHUKOUQIYEJINGYINGCHENGBENDAZHANG,BINGJIADALEGUOJIAJIANWULIUNANDU。2019NIANQUANQIUFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIYIJIZENGZHI5WANDUOGE,YINGXIANG90%DESHIJIEMAOYI,YICHENGWEIQUANQIUMAOYITANPANDEZHONGXINWENTI。

  DAZONGSHANGPINYILAIWENTIZHANGQIKUNRAOQUANQIUMAOYI。2019NIANQUANQIUDAZONGSHANGPINYILAIZHUANGKUANGDADAO20NIANYILAIZUIYANZHONGCHENGDU,QUANQIUYIBANYISHANGGUOJIAHESANFENZHIERFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAYILAIDAZONGSHANGPIN,BAOKUODABUFENZUIBUFADAGUOJIA、NEILUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAHEXIAODAOYUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIA,SAHALAYINANFEIZHOUGUOJIAWENTIZUIWEIYANZHONG。

红包捕鱼  QIHOUWEIJIYANGJIQUANQIUMAOYI。QIHOUWEIJIDUIDAZONGSHANGPINSUOSHEGEXINGYEZAOCHENGCHONGJIBINGDAILAILEJUDAJINGJIFENGXIAN,YOUQIDUIYILAIDAZONGSHANGPINDEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAGOUCHENGSHENGCUNWEIXIE,QIGAODUYILAIDUIWAIMAOYIDEXINGYEJIYISHOUJIDUANTIANQISHIJIANYINGXIANG。HAIYANGSHENGWENDUIXIAODAOYUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIACHUKOUGAODUYILAIDEYUYEGOUCHENGZHONGDAFENGXIAN。QIHOUWEIJIHAIDUIDIWEIDUDIQUYILAINONGZUOWUCHUKOUDEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAHEYILAIHUASHIRANLIAOCHUKOUDEGAOSHOURUGUOJIAZAOCHENGLEYANZHONGYINGXIANG。

红包捕鱼  SHUZIJINGJIBUPINGDENGXIANXIANGJIAJUQUANQIUMAOYISHIHENG。SHUZIJINGJIHECHUANGYIJINGJICAIFUJICHUANGZAOLIGAODUJIZHONGZAISHAOSHUGUOJIADEJIGEPINGTAI,QITADIQUYOUQISHIFEIZHOUHELAMEIYUANYUANLUOHOU,SHUZIHONGGOUQUYUKUODA,QUANQIUKUAJINGDIANZISHANGWUFAZHANCHAJUKUODAQIEQUEFADUIFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAMAOYIYUANZHUZHANLVE。

  DIYUANZHENGZHIJINZHANGJUSHIPOHUAIDIQUMAOYIWENDING。2019NIAN,ZHONGDONGDIQUCHIXUCHONGTU、NANMEIZHOUBUFENGUOJIAXIANRUZHENGJUDONGDANG、FEIZHOUZHONGDONGOUZHOUBAOFANANMINWEIJI、DONGYARIHANBAOFAZHENGZHIJINGJIMOCADENG,JUNDUIDIQUMAOYIWENDINGZAOCHENGYINGXIANG。

  负重前行或迎曙光

红包捕鱼  GUOJIJINGMAOJINRONGZUZHIPUBIANRENWEI,MINGNIANQUANQIUMAOYIJIYUYUTIAOZHANBINGCUN。DANGQIAN,QUANQIUJINGJIRENGMIANLINYOUBUDANGMAOYIZHENGCEYOUFADEXIAXINGFENGXIAN。2019NIAN10YUEFEN,SHIMAOZUZHIDAFUXIADIAOLECIQIANDEMAOYIZENGZHANGYUCE,YUJI2019NIANQUANQIUSHANGPINMAOYIEZENGZHANG1.2%,YUANDIYUGAIJIGOUZHIQIANDE2.6%ZENGZHANGYUQI;YUJI2020NIANMAOYIZENGZHANG2.7%,YIDIYUZHIQIAN3%DEYUCE。2019NIANSHIJIEMAOYIZENGFUZAI0.5%-1.6%ZHIJIAN,2020NIANZENGFUZAI1.7%-3.7%ZHIJIAN,ZENGFUZHANGDIEQUJUEYUMAOYIJINZHANGJUSHINENGFOUHUANJIE。

  SHIMAOZUZHIJINGJIXUEJIAZHICHU,YUCE2020NIANSHIJIEMAOYIXINGSHI,XUKAOLVMAOYIMOCAJUSHIHEHONGGUANJINGJIHUANJINGDENGYINSU,JIZHONGMEIMAOYITANPANJINZHAN、QUANQIUJINGJIWENDINGZHUANGKUANG、GEDAJINGJITICAIZHENGJIHUOBIZHENGCEMAOYIXIAOYING、YINGGUOTUOOUJIEJUHESHIMAOZUZHIGAIGEJINCHENGDENG。QUANQIUMAOYIDEZUIDAFENGXIANRENGSHIMAOYICHONGTUJIBANSUIERLAIDEEXINGXUNHUAN,HONGGUANJINGJIXIAHUA、JINRONGBODONGHEQIANZAIDIYUANZHENGZHIWEIJIDENGYISHIFENGXIANDIAN;YINGGUOTUOOUJIANGDUIDIQUMAOYIYOUQISHIDUIOUZHOUCHANSHENGYINGXIANG;FADAGUOJIAHUOBIKUANSONGZHENGCEDUIMAOYIDETIZHENZUOYONGJIMAOYISHUNCHAGUOJIACAIQUDEZHENDUIXINGCAIZHENGZHENGCEXIAOYING,HUOWEIMAOYISHANGXINGDAILAIJIJIYINSU。

  QUANQIUMAOYIYECUNZAIZHUDUOZHENGMIANJIJIYINSU。GUOJISHEHUIPUBIANZHICHIZIYOUMAOYIHEDUOBIANMAOYITIZHI,WEICUJINQUANQIUMAOYISHULILEXINXIN。ZHONGMEIMAOYITANPANDACHENGDIYIJIEDUANJINGMAOXIEYI,WEIQUANQIUMAOYIDAILAILELIHAOYUQI。ZAIGUOJISHEHUINULIXIA,SHIMAOZUZHIGAIGEHUOYINGLAIQIJI。DIANZISHANGWU、SHUZIJINGJIHECHUANGYIJINGJIJIYUJIJUDAQIANZAISHOUYIHUOZHUANBIANWEIQUANQIUMAOYIDEZHONGYAOZENGLIANG。JIJIYINGDUIQIHOUWENTIDUIMAOYIZENGZHANGYIYOUZHENGMIANXIAOYING,FAZHANZHONGGUOJIAKEYIYICIWEIDONGLI,SHIXIANJINGJIJIEGOUDIAOZHENGHECHUKOUDUOYUANHUA。FEIGUANSHUICUOSHIYIKEFUWUYUYUKECHIXUFAZHANYOUGUANDEGONGGONGZHENGCEMUBIAO,ZHEIFANGMIANDEQUYUHEDUOBIANHEZUOXIANYIKAISHI,BAOKUOZAIQUYUMAOYIXIEDINGZHONGDUIFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIYUYIXIEDIAO、CAIYONGGUOJIBIAOZHUN、LIYONGFEIGUANSHUICUOSHICUJINSHICHANGZHUNRUDENG。YIXIEYILAIDAZONGSHANGPINTEBIESHIYILAINENGYUANCHUKOUDEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIA,ZAIJIAKUAISHIXIANMAOYIDUOYUANHUAFANGMIANYEYIYOUCHENGGONGSHIJIAN。

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