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                达摩院2020年预测:人工智能从感知智能向认知智能演进

                一财网  |  2020年01月02日
                1月2日,阿里巴巴达摩院2020年十大科技趋势对外发布,这是继2019年之后的第二次年度科技预测。

                红包捕鱼  2020NIANSHIDAKEJIQUSHIFENBIEWEI:RENGONGZHINENGCONGGANZHIZHINENGXIANGRENZHIZHINENGYANJIN、JISUANCUNCHUYITIHUATUPOAISUANLIPINGJING、GONGYEHULIANWANGDECHAORONGHE、JIQIJIANDAGUIMOXIEZUOCHENGWEIKENENG、MOKUAIHUAJIANGDIXINPIANSHEJIMENJIAN、GUIMOHUASHENGCHANJIQUKUAILIANYINGYONGJIANGZOURUDAZHONG、LIANGZIJISUANJINRUGONGJIANQI、XINCAILIAOTUIDONGBANDAOTIQIJIANGEXIN、BAOHUSHUJUYINSIDEAIJISHUJIANGJIASULUODI、YUNCHENGWEIITJISHUCHUANGXINDEZHONGXIN。

                  DAMOYUANFANGMIANGAOSUJIZHE:“(2020NIAN)SHIDAQUSHIDEXINGCHENG,XIANHOUJINGLILEQIANQIZHUNBEI、GUANDIANSOUJI、ZHENGHETILIAN、TAOLUNJUJIAO、NEIRONGCHANCHUDENGGUOCHENG,DAMOYUANNEIBUHEWAIBUGONGYOU80YUWEICONGSHIYIXIANKEYANGONGZUODEZHUANJIAXUEZHECANYUQIJIAN,DAMOYUANTONGSHIHAIYUIDC、SHANGHAISHIKEXUEXUEYANJIUSUODENGZIXUNJIGOUZUOLESHENRUDETANTAO,HUOQUKEYANLINGYUDEZUIDAGONGSHI。”

                  YI“RENGONGZHINENGCONGGANZHIZHINENGXIANGRENZHIZHINENGYANJIN”WEILI,RENGONGZHINENGYIJINGZAI“TING、SHUO、KAN”DENGGANZHIZHINENGLINGYUYIJINGDADAOHUOCHAOYUELERENLEISHUIZHUN,DANZAIXUYAOWAIBUZHISHI、LUOJITUILIHUOZHELINGYUQIANYIDERENZHIZHINENGLINGYUHAICHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN。RENZHIZHINENGJIANGCONGRENZHIXINLIXUE、NAOKEXUEJIRENLEISHEHUILISHIZHONGJIQULINGGAN,BINGJIEHEKUALINGYUZHISHITUPU、YINGUOTUILI、CHIXUXUEXIDENGJISHU,JIANLIWENDINGHUOQUHEBIAODAZHISHIDEYOUXIAOJIZHI,RANGZHISHINENGGOUBEIJIQILIJIEHEYUNYONG,SHIXIANCONGGANZHIZHINENGDAORENZHIZHINENGDEGUANJIANTUPO。

                  当今,城市正成为产业互联网最大的应用场景,随着5G、人工智能和大数据等技术的不断完善与场景化落地,人们看到了更多的发展前景。以城市视频多维数据为核心,融合智能社区、轨道交通、医疗、教育等多种场景,各行各业积极利用多种前沿技术,不断加快创新,构建城市级的数据平台,打破不同场景的数据孤岛,打造面向城市智能的数据湖、算力中心和AI赋能平台,并实现城市智能的不断升级,实现城市智能的自主进化,打造新一代的智能城市。

                  SHISHISHANG,DUIYUZHIHUICHENGSHIDEDAZAO,ALIBABAZAOYOUSHIJIAN。YIZHONGKONGXINXIYUALIBABAHEZUODEYIXIANGLVBODAITISHENGGAIZAOGONGCHENGWEILI,HANGZHOUBINJIANGQUJIANGNANDADAO,QUANCHANG10GONGLI,SHEYOU13GEJIAOCHALUKOU。RUGUOJINIANQIANNIJIACHETONGGUOZHEIGELUDUAN,QUANCHENGXUYAO13FENZHONG,RUJINJIANSHAODAO9FENZHONG,TINGCHEDENGHONGLVDENGDECISHUJIANSHAODAO1~2CI。

                  "LVBODAI",SHITONGGUOXINHAODENGKONGZHI,SHIQICHEZAIANZHAOJIANYIDESUDUXINGSHISHI,NENGSHIXIANZAISHEDINGDEQUYUNEIYILULVDENGTONGXINGDEYIZHONGSHEZHIGUIZE。JIANDANLAISHUOJIUSHI,GENJULIANGGELUKOUZHIJIANDEJULIHESHEJIDECHESU,JISUANCHULIANGGELUKOUZHIJIANDELVDENGJIANGESHIJIAN,RUGUOCHELIANGZAISHANGYILUKOULVDENGHOUANZHAOSHEJIDECHESUXINGSHI,NEIMEDADAOXIAYIGELUKOUDESHIHOUGANGHAOYESHILVDENG。

                  “WOMENZAIHANGZHOUCANJIANLEZHONGDUOZHINENGJICHUSHESHI,BAOKUOCHENGSHIJIAOTONG、GUIDAOJIAOTONG、GONGYONGGONGCHENGDENG。ZAICHENGSHIZHINENGJIAOTONGFANGMIAN,DAHANGZHOUDIQUDEBINJIANGQU、XIAOSHANQU、YUHANGQU、GAOJIAZADAOJIBUFENZHUCHENGQUDENG,GONGYOUYUE2700DUOGELUKOUCAIYONGZHONGKONGXINXIZIZHUYANFADEIntellificJIAOTONGXINHAOKONGZHIXITONG。TONGSHIWOMENYOUSHIDUONIANJIAOTONGXINHAOKONGZHISUANFADEJILEIHECHENDIAN,DUIJIEHEHULIANWANGSHUJUJINXINGJIAOTONGXINHAOYOUHUAKONGZHIJUYOUYIDINGJICHU。”ZHONGKONGXINXIZONGCAI、JIAOSHOUJIGAOGONGZHAOHONGMINGGAOSUJIZHE,YUALIZHIJIANDEFENGONGHEZUONENGGOUNINGJUCHENGYIGEZHENGTIDEJIEJUEFANGANLAIJIYIXIEZHONGXIAODECHENGSHITIGONGYIGEBIJIAOHAODEJIEJUEFANGAN。

                  RENGONGZHINENGZUIZAOSHIZAI1956NIANTICHUDE,ZUIZAOTICHUSHIXIWANGJIQIJUYOURENDEGANZHI、XINGDONG、TUILIYUJUECEDENENGLI,ERSUIZHESHIDAIDEYANHUA,MUQIANCONGYANJIULINGYUJIANG,XIWANGJIQINENGGOUYONGYOUZIZHUDEZHINENG,JIQIZAISHUJUYUCHANGJINGDEJICHUSHANG,BUJINNENGGOUDAITIRENLEIZHONGFUXINGDELAODONG,TONGSHINENGGOUHERENYIYANGJINXINGZIWOJINHUA、SIKAO,CONG“GANZHIZHINENG”XIANG“RENZHIZHINENG”JINXINGZHUANBIAN,TONGSHIZIZHUJINHUAHEHUNHEZHINENGDEFAZHANYEZAIBUDUANWANSHANHECHENGSHU,ZHEISHIMUQIANRENGONGZHINENGLINGYUDUIRENGONGZHINENGXINDEDINGYI,WEILAIHENZHANGYIDUANSHIJIANDOUHUISHIRENJIHUNHEZHINENGJIEDUAN。

                  “JIYUZHINENGCHENGSHIDEZIZHUJINHUAMOXING,SHIXIANZHISHIHESHUJULIANHEYOUHUADERENJIHUNHEZHINENG,YONGYIQUDONGCHENGSHIZHILIHEGUANLIJUECE,SHIXIANFUWUCHENGSHIGUIHUA、ZHENGWU、CHANYE、MINSHENGDEJIAZHISHUCHU。SUIZHERENGONGZHINENG、BIANYUANJISUAN、XINPIANDENGJISHUFAZHAN,NENGCONGSHIPINZHONGTIQUDEYOUJIAZHIDENEIRONGHUIYUELAIYUEFENGFU、KUAISUHEZHUNQUE,SHIPINSHUJUBIJIANGCHENGWEIWEILAICHENGSHIZHILIHEXINSHUJUZHIYI。”ZHONGKEYUANZIDONGHUASUOMOSHISHIBIEGUOJIAZHONGDIANSHIYANSHIYANJIUYUANWANGJINQIAORENWEI,SUIZHECHIXUZENGJIADEHAILIANGSHUJUDEJILEI,JIZHINENGCHENGSHIJISUANDAILAILEJUDADETIAOZHAN,YINCIHAILIANGSHIPINSHUJUSHISHIXINGDUANBIANYUNDERONGHEJISUAN、ZIZHUJINHUA、RENJIHUNHEZHINENGCHENGWEICHENGSHISHUJUZHILIGUANJIAN,TONGGUOSHENCENGYINGYONGJIAZHIHEXINGYESHUJURONGHEYINGYONGSHIXIANZHINENGCHENGSHIJIANSHE。

                  附:达摩院2020十大科技趋势

                  趋势一、人工智能从感知智能向认知智能演进

                  RENGONGZHINENGYIJINGZAI“TING、SHUO、KAN”DENGGANZHIZHINENGLINGYUYIJINGDADAOHUOCHAOYUELERENLEISHUIZHUN,DANZAIXUYAOWAIBUZHISHI、LUOJITUILIHUOZHELINGYUQIANYIDERENZHIZHINENGLINGYUHAICHUYUCHUJIJIEDUAN。RENZHIZHINENGJIANGCONGRENZHIXINLIXUE、NAOKEXUEJIRENLEISHEHUILISHIZHONGJIQULINGGAN,BINGJIEHEKUALINGYUZHISHITUPU、YINGUOTUILI、CHIXUXUEXIDENGJISHU,JIANLIWENDINGHUOQUHEBIAODAZHISHIDEYOUXIAOJIZHI,RANGZHISHINENGGOUBEIJIQILIJIEHEYUNYONG,SHIXIANCONGGANZHIZHINENGDAORENZHIZHINENGDEGUANJIANTUPO。

                  趋势二、计算存储一体化突破AI算力瓶颈

                  FENGNUOYIMANJIAGOUDECUNCHUHEJISUANFENLI,YIJINGBUSHIHESHUJUQUDONGDERENGONGZHINENGYINGYONGXUQIU。PINFANDESHUJUBANYUNDAOZHIDESUANLIPINGJINGYIJIGONGHAOPINGJINGYIJINGCHENGWEIDUIGENGXIANJINSUANFATANSUODEXIANZHIYINSU。LEISIYUNAOSHENJINGJIEGOUDECUNNEIJISUANJIAGOUJIANGSHUJUCUNCHUDANYUANHEJISUANDANYUANRONGHEWEIYITI,NENGXIANZHUJIANSHAOSHUJUBANYUN,JIDATIGAOJISUANBINGXINGDUHENENGXIAO。JISUANCUNCHUYITIHUAZAIYINGJIANJIAGOUFANGMIANDEGEXIN,JIANGTUPOAISUANLIPINGJING。

                  趋势三、工业互联网的超融合

                  5G、IoTSHEBEI、YUNJISUAN、BIANYUANJISUANDEXUNSUFAZHANJIANGTUIDONGGONGYEHULIANWANGDECHAORONGHE,SHIXIANGONGKONGXITONG、TONGXINXITONGHEXINXIHUAXITONGDEZHINENGHUARONGHE。ZHIZAOQIYEJIANGSHIXIANSHEBEIZIDONGHUA、BANSONGZIDONGHUAHEPAICHANZIDONGHUA,JINERSHIXIANROUXINGZHIZAO,TONGSHIGONGCHANGSHANGXIAYOUZHIZAOCHANXIANNENGSHISHIDIAOZHENGHEXIETONG。ZHEIJIANGDAFUTISHENGGONGCHANGDESHENGCHANXIAOLVJIQIYEDEYINGLINENGLI。DUICHANZHISHUSHIWANYINAIZHISHUBAIWANYIDEGONGYECHANYEERYAN,TIGAO5%-10%DEXIAOLV,JIUHUICHANSHENGSHUWANYIRENMINBIDEJIAZHI。

                  趋势四、机器间大规模协作成为可能

                红包捕鱼  CHUANTONGDANTIZHINENGWUFAMANZUDAGUIMOZHINENGSHEBEIDESHISHIGANZHI、JUECE。WULIANWANGXIETONGGANZHIJISHU、5GTONGXINJISHUDEFAZHANJIANGSHIXIANDUOGEZHINENGTIZHIJIANDEXIETONG——JIQIBICIHEZUO、XIANGHUJINGZHENGGONGTONGWANCHENGMUBIAORENWU。DUOZHINENGTIXIETONGDAILAIDEQUNTIZHINENGJIANGJINYIBUFANGDAZHINENGXITONGDEJIAZHI:DAGUIMOZHINENGJIAOTONGDENGDIAODUJIANGSHIXIANDONGTAISHISHIDIAOZHENG,CANGCHUJIQIRENXIEZUOWANCHENGHUOWUFENJIANDEGAOXIAOXIEZUO,WURENJIASHICHEKEYIGANZHIQUANJULUKUANG,QUNTIWURENJIXIETONGJIANGGAOXIAODATONGZUIHOUYIGONGLIPEISONG。

                  趋势五、模块化降低芯片设计门槛

                  CHUANTONGXINPIANSHEJIMOSHIWUFAGAOXIAOYINGDUIKUAISUDIEDAI、DINGZHIHUAYUSUIPIANHUADEXINPIANXUQIU。YIRISC-VWEIDAIBIAODEKAIFANGZHILINGJIJIQIXIANGYINGDEKAIYUANSoCXINPIANSHEJI、GAOJICHOUXIANGYINGJIANMIAOSHUYUYANHEJIYUIPDEMOBANHUAXINPIANSHEJIFANGFA,TUIDONGLEXINPIANMINJIESHEJIFANGFAYUKAIYUANXINPIANSHENGTAIDEKUAISUFAZHAN。CIWAI,JIYUXINLI(chiplet)DEMOKUAIHUASHEJIFANGFAYONGXIANJINFENGZHUANGDEFANGSHIJIANGBUTONGGONGNENG“XINPIANMOKUAI”FENGZHUANGZAIYIQI,KEYITIAOGUOLIUPIANKUAISUDINGZHICHUYIGEFUHEYINGYONGXUQIUDEXINPIAN,JINYIBUJIAKUAILEXINPIANDEJIAOFU。

                  趋势六、规模化生产级区块链应用将走入大众

                红包捕鱼  QUKUAILIANBaaS(Blockchain as a Service)FUWUJIANGJINYIBUJIANGDIQIYEYINGYONGQUKUAILIANJISHUDEMENJIAN,ZHUANWEIQUKUAILIANSHEJIDEDUAN、YUN、LIANGELEIGUHUAHEXINSUANFADEYINGJIANXINPIANDENGYEJIANGYINGYUNERSHENG,SHIXIANWULISHIJIEZICHANYULIANSHANGZICHANDEMAODING,JINYIBUTUOZHANJIAZHIHULIANWANGDEBIANJIE、SHIXIANWANLIANHULIAN。WEILAIJIANGYONGXIANDAPICHUANGXINQUKUAILIANYINGYONGCHANGJINGYIJIKUAXINGYE、KUASHENGTAIDEDUOWEIXIEZUO,RIHUOQIANWANYISHANGDEGUIMOHUASHENGCHANJIQUKUAILIANYINGYONGJIANGHUIZOURUDAZHONG。

                  趋势七、量子计算进入攻坚期

                  2019NIAN,“LIANGZIBAQUAN”ZHIZHENGRANGLIANGZIJISUANZAIZAICICHENGWEISHIJIEKEJIJIAODIAN。CHAODAOLIANGZIJISUANXINPIANDECHENGGUO,ZENGQIANGLEXINGYEDUICHAODAOLUXIANJIDUIDAGUIMOLIANGZIJISUANSHIXIANBUFADELEGUANYUQI。2020NIANLIANGZIJISUANLINGYUJIANGHUIJINGLITOURUJINYIBUZENGDA、JINGZHENGJIHUA、CHANYEHUAJIASUHESHENGTAIGENGJIAFENGFUDEJIEDUAN。ZUOWEILIANGGEZUIGUANJIANDEJISHULICHENGBEI,RONGCUOLIANGZIJISUANHEYANSHISHIYONGLIANGZIYOUSHIJIANGSHILIANGZIJISUANSHIYONGHUADEZHUANZHEDIAN。WEILAIJINIANNEI,ZHENZHENGDADAOQIZHONGRENHEYIGEDOUJIANGSHISHIFENJIANJUDERENWU,LIANGZIJISUANJIANGJINRUJISHUGONGJIANQI。

                  趋势八、新材料推动半导体器件革新

                  ZAIMOERDINGLVFANGHUANYIJISUANLIHECUNCHUXUQIUBAOFADESHUANGZHONGYALIXIA,YIGUIWEIZHUTIDEJINGDIANJINGTIGUANHENNANWEICHIBANDAOTICHANYEDECHIXUFAZHAN,GEDABANDAOTICHANGSHANGDUIYU3NAMIYIXIADEXINPIANZOUXIANGDOUMEIYOUMINGQUEDEDAAN。XINCAILIAOJIANGTONGGUOQUANXINWULIJIZHISHIXIANQUANXINDELUOJI、CUNCHUJIHULIANGAINIANHEQIJIAN,TUIDONGBANDAOTICHANYEDEGEXIN。LIRU,TUOPUJUEYUANTI、ERWEICHAODAOCAILIAODENGNENGGOUSHIXIANWUSUNHAODEDIANZIHEZIXUANSHUYUN,KEYICHENGWEIQUANXINDEGAOXINGNENGLUOJIHEHULIANQIJIANDEJICHU;XINXINGCIXINGCAILIAOHEXINXINGZUBIANCAILIAONENGGOUDAILAIGAOXINGNENGCIXINGCUNCHUQIRUSOT-MRAMHEZUBIANCUNCHUQI。

                  趋势九、保护数据隐私的AI技术将加速落地

                  SHUJULIUTONGSUOCHANSHENGDEHEGUICHENGBENYUELAIYUEGAO。SHIYONGAIJISHUBAOHUSHUJUYINSIZHENGZAICHENGWEIXINDEJISHUREDIAN,QINENGGOUZAIBAOZHENGGEFANGSHUJUANQUANHEYINSIDETONGSHI,LIANHESHIYONGFANGSHIXIANTEDINGJISUAN,JIEJUESHUJUGUDAOYIJISHUJUGONGXIANGKEXINCHENGDUDIDEWENTI,SHIXIANSHUJUDEJIAZHI。

                  趋势十、云成为IT技术创新的中心

                  SUIZHEYUNJISHUDESHENRUFAZHAN,YUNYIJINGYUANYUANCHAOGUOITJICHUSHESHIDEFANCHOU,JIANJIANYANBIANCHENGSUOYOUITJISHUCHUANGXINDEZHONGXIN。YUNYIJINGGUANCHUANXINXINGXINPIAN、XINXINGSHUJUKU、ZIQUDONGZISHIYINGDEWANGLUO、DASHUJU、AI、WULIANWANG、QUKUAILIAN、LIANGZIJISUANZHENGGEITJISHULIANLU,TONGSHIYOUYANSHENGLEWUFUWUQIJISUAN、YUNYUANSHENGRUANJIANJIAGOU、RUANYINGYITIHUASHEJI、ZHINENGZIDONGHUAYUNWEIDENGQUANXINDEJISHUMOSHI,YUNZHENGZAIZHONGXINDINGYIITDEYIQIE。GUANGYIDEYUN,ZHENGZAIYUANYUANBUDUANDIJIANGXINDEITJISHUBIANCHENGCHUSHOUKEJIDEFUWU,CHENGWEIZHENGGESHUZIJINGJIDEJICHUSHESHI。

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